According to OECD‐FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021‐2030 on meat consumption, the international meat prices were declining in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19. There are several reasons behind this, but logistical hurdles as well as reduced food service and household spending are cited as the main reasons that curtail meat export and import, hence dragging the price down. 

However, the report projects that global meat supply will start to increase and reach 374 million metric tonnes by 2030, assuming that the economic impact of the pandemic in the meat sector will be short-lived. 

Meat protein consumption is projected to increase by 14% by that time, mainly driven by income and population growth. However, it mentions that consumer preferences for certain diets - which have been increasing lately, may reduce meat production and import demand.

In detail, the report shows protein availability from different kinds of meat, ranging from beef and poultry to pork and sheep. Beef and poultry is projected to grow 17.8% and 5.9%, respectively, while pork and sheep will grow 13.1% and 15.7%, respectively. 

The report highlights that the increase in global meat production is led mainly by growth in poultry production. With that being said, poultry meat is expected to represent 41% of all the protein from meat sources globally by 2030. As an illustration, in Indonesia, according to a 2021 data, poultry consumption reached 9.3 kg/capita/year, while beef consumption only reached 2.4 kg/capita/year.

The country with the largest beef consumption is Argentina with 36 kg/capita/year. Meanwhile, the largest poultry consumption is recorded in Israel with 68.7 kg/capita/year, followed by neighbouring country Malaysia with 53.1kg/capita/year. 

The report also elaborates the determinants of meat consumption. It mentions how demographics, urbanisation, incomes, prices, tradition, religious beliefs, cultural norms and environmental, ethical/animal welfare and health concerns are the key factors that affect the level and also the type of meat consumption. 

Meat is considered as an expensive source of calories and proteins, hence economic growth is also considered as another important aspect affecting meat consumption, especially in lower income countries. For higher income countries, meat consumption is largely saturated and limited by other factors, such as environmental and ethical/animal welfare and health concerns.

The report also explains how these increasing numbers of meat production and consumption will lead to the increase of greenhouse emissions (GHG), but highlighting that the growth will be “slowly”. The primary shifts towards poultry production, national low carbon emission initiatives and increased productivity which yields higher meat output are cited as the reasons. Carbon taxes and specific regulations along with incentives to adopt technologies may also help reduce the sector’s GHG footprint.