What is fashion trend forecasting?
Written by Kezia Pribadi | Read in Indonesian
Fashion trend forecasting is characterised by the process of projecting future fashion trends. Through early projections, fashion designers and merchants will be able to figure out and decide the future trend. It is a field where fashion researchers analyse market trends and buying habits to decide on how to step forward in designing a new collection.
The aim is to create a visual story through trends in silhouettes, design elements, colours, fabrics and prints, footwear, accessories and other styles that will be presented on the runway and in stores for the upcoming seasons. Trend forecasting is vital across all levels of fashion, including ready to wear, haute couture, mass market and street wear.
The trend is characterised by what appears on the street, runways, or social media platforms. It is about the appeal of newness because it’s scarce in the general marketplace. This is built by awareness of demand for a “new look” among consumers.
Similar to watching weather patterns, tracking trends is all about prediction; predicting the stages in the evolution of trends. This can be concluded in three stages: first, Fringe - this is where innovation arises and the trendiest consumers and entrepreneurs begin to participate. Second, Trendy - due to early adopters joining the innovators, the awareness of the trend grows exponentially, thus increasing the visibility of the trend.
At this stage, fashion brands and retailers begin to implement the concept through design and trial and error. Lastly, the mainstream stage. When the general market joins, there is an increase in visibility and capitalisation due to demands from corporations and brands.
The evolution of fashion trend forecasting
During the 1990s, fashion forecasting rocked the apparel business. This was due to the immense cultural shifts as women were allowed to enter the workforce. Moreover, social rules in governing what is appropriate for women and men to wear started breaking down in the 1960s owing to efforts to revolutionise values and interest. As the process continued, casual looks soon became acceptable and demand for individuality drew attention to the system in fashion.
Today, buyers and forecasters attend shows where they would take notes and create an extensive report on the trends that designers have chosen for the upcoming fashion year. The report is then used for larger retailers, including department stores, as a reference to create their collection for the general public.
With social media, innovative technology and live streaming, trend forecasting is able to move effectively and at a much faster pace. This is aided by trendsetters, who are no longer exclusive to renowned designers. Today, trendsetters can be described as fashion influencers on Instagram, fashion bloggers and even celebrities.
There are also people who set the stone in the fashion world. Trend forecasting is now considered an essential job; trend forecasters have become prominent advisors in the industry because they are able to strategise in selling what the market demands. This job requires creative methods and a keen eye to be observant and detailed.
Why fashion forecasting is important
Trend forecasting comes down to drawing trends from the past; past sales analysis and trade shows. At the present time, brands have the ability to churn new collections at a rate that is faster than ever. It has therefore directly affected the behaviours of consumers as they too switch preferences just as quickly.
Although runway collections and store feedback remain an important creative source for the industry, consumption rates and information distribution have accelerated beyond that of fashion weeks. There is always something new being created, be it styles, trends, or products.
Forecasters use diverse methods in looking for the new, the fresh and innovative, but it all boils down to looking for a method that allows them to predict the mood, behaviour and buying habits of consumers because trends are the way to figure out the emerging needs and wants of buyers.
In addition, they also give way to manufacturers and retailers to capitalise on the budding potential in exchange for profit.
Since it is impossible to ask all consumers what they want to wear for the next season or year, it is crucial for designers to understand the ins and outs of the world because it will greatly affect how the industry moves.
It is also important to note that to do so, teamwork is fundamental: Executives, designers and merchandisers must work together to do intense research and analysis. The job entails evaluating and varying the lifestyle of consumers and the shopping behaviours of the market, as well as reading trend and design reports.
They also use a wide range of apparatus, such as fashion magazines and newspapers, to understand the purchasing habits of consumers. It also plays a role in regard to design, manufacturing and sales research because it affects the making of intelligent and planned out decisions.
To fit the mainstream fashion, it is also important to note that researching sales statistics also establishes the trends that will be decided by the brand.
Long-term forecasting
Long-term forecasting is the process of analysing and evaluating trends so that they can be identified by a multitude of sources for information. Long-term forecasting applies to a trend that lasts for over two years.
This process requires scanning the market and consumers - fashion forecasters must be able to keep track of both urban and suburban demographics as well as examine how it impacts retail and consumers through the economy, political system, the environment and culture.
The aim of long-term forecasting is to identify major changes in international and domestic demographics, including shifts in the industry, market structures, values and impulses to buy, consumer expectations and advancements in economic, political, and cultural alliances between certain countries.
The particular job for this field is known as specialised marketing consultant and its main objective is to focus on long-term forecasting and attend trade shows to circulate data and reports to the industry on what is to come.
Short-term forecasting
Short-term forecasting places focus on current events domestically and internationally. They also draw sources from pop culture to identify possible trends that will then be translated visually to customers through various factors, such as colour palette, fabric choices and silhouette stories.
Some important areas include current events, art, sports, science and technology. Short-term forecasting can also be called fad forecasting.
Most notable trend forecasting company: WGSN
WGSN is a trend forecasting company of parent organisation Ascential. It was founded in 1998 by brothers Julian and Marc Worth but sold to Ascential in 2005. WGSN allows designers, companies and brands to subscribe to its services for tens of thousands of dollars, and the price varies depending on the size of the company and the subscription level.
With 20+ years of forecasting expertise and 250+ in-house industry experts, data analysts and advisory consultants and over 128 countries tracked for local insights, WGSN has become the most influential and biggest company that does trend forecasting.
They serve over 5,700 clients, including Nike, Lululemon and H&M, and cater to other sectors, such as food and beverage, beauty, consumer tech, home and interior, hospitality and travel, as well as advertising.
It isn’t just about fashion predictions; it is also about consumer behaviour insights and marketing strategies. 53% of their users use their services for design advice, but what goes beyond their work is the attention to research for fashion publications.
Their use of quantitative and qualitative data, drawing from society, technology, politics, environment, industry and creative culture adds to the reliability and validity in their reports. Their forecasts are then refocused to ensure that it is applicable at the industry and product level.
“Our team of data scientists are constantly expanding and enhancing our data content to add even more strategic value to our reporting, introducing sophisticated models and algorithms to drive scalable accuracy. Our TrendCurve+ service uses our proprietary forecasting algorithm to provide incredibly accurate product predictions,” WGSN stated on its website.
As a forefront of trend forecasting service, WGSN is able to accurately forecast consumer, lifestyle and product design trends in order to help clients in making confident decisions.
In addition to its reports, WGSN offers a wide database of pantone colours, patterns and over 70,000 design templates that designers can use. A designer in the process of creating a new collection can refer to the templates and opt to add prints, graphics and embellishments or alter the templates as they wish.
Trend forecasting in Indonesia
The Indonesian Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy/Tourism and Creative Economy Agency has relaunched the results of their research titled “Indonesia Trend Forecast 2021/2022”. The research, which contains guidance and inspiration in design, colour, form and illustration to suit the local future market, is expected to serve as a notable reference for industry players, designers and academics in the field of fashion in Indonesia.
The “Indonesia Trend Forecast 2021/2022” book is the third edition and part of the previous trend forecasting reports that have been released annually for the last four years. This year’s theme is “New Beginning”. The report was compiled by the Indonesian trend forecast team, which includes a collaborative research and development team consisting of key experts, practitioners and academics in the Indonesian creative industry.
It was also backed by associations, such as the Indonesia Fashion Chamber, Indonesian Society of Interior Designers, Indonesian Alliance of Industrial Product Designers, ITB Textile Community and the Indonesian Visual Communication Design Professional Association.
The book mentions that, “By elevating Indonesia's unique wealth, Trend Forecasting is expected to attract people to Indonesian tourism products and destinations and boost the economic performance in line with the government’s target…Designs that promote novelty will increase the value of a product locally and globally. This is expected to accommodate the need for designs/products that are innovative but still have high selling power that can be mutually beneficial and strengthen the growth of both Indonesia’s creative economy and tourism.”
“The New Beginning” was conceived due to the reality of COVID-19 and how life has changed exponentially, globally. The change is implemented in the book in four themes: Essentiality, Spirituality, Exploration and Exploitation.
It explores the themes of comfort and functionality, tradition and culture, elements of exaggeration in the form of detail and silhouettes, as well as hope for a better world expressed in the form of celebrating uniqueness and eccentricity.
